I’m currently reading a report produced by the Capstone seminar on Identity Politics, Intelligence and Security in Canada at the University of Ottawa in 2008-2009. The report, written by graduate students, was the culmination of a graduate seminar that included participants from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), Canada’s spooks. The entirety of the report, titled “Canada in 2020: Identity Politics and Security
Future Scenarios”, is available on CSIS’s website.

It examines four future scenarios that could confront Canada. It’s the product of interesting, and sometimes outlandish, imaginings. Here’s a gem:

When Pakistan collapses in 2016 and the United States, plunged into an economic crisis, cannot intervene, India drafts an economic rescue plan for Pakistan aimed at imposing its authority over the country and the entire region. The plan advocates a greater integration of the Indian and Pakistani economies and the appointment of pro-Indian politicians to senior positions within the Pakistani government administration. In Canada, a number of Pakistani citizens opposed to the rescue plan have been aggressive towards Indians. Fundamentalist feelings have flared up, opening the door to terrorist organizations and the recruitment of new members.

Oh boy. I definitely think the collapse of Pakistan is plausible but it would take a serious development to precipitate such an outcome.

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